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Market Remain Cautious, NSE All-Share Index Green  



ForexTime Limited

Market Remain Cautious, NSE All Share Index Green  

Written on 27/04/2022 by Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM 

Global stocks were wrapped in caution on Tuesday as investors nursed the nasty hangover from the previous day’s rout as fears over the impact of China’s new lockdowns lingered in the air.  

Yesterday, Wall Street was thrown a lifeline later in the session after Twitter agreed to be bought by billionaire Elon Musk. In the currency space, the mighty dollar climbed to its highest level since March 2020 thanks to risk aversion and expectations over the Fed raising rates by 50 basis points next month. There was no love for gold despite the risk-off mood, with the precious metal securing a daily close below $1900, while oil tumbled below $100 amid worries about the global energy demand outlook. Interestingly, Nigerian Stock markets remain in the green with the NSE All-Share Index up over 13% since the start of 2022. The economic calendar remains relatively quiet over the next few weeks but in May, much attention will be on the inflation report, latest GDP, and CBN meeting which will all be on the same day – Tuesday 24th of May according to Bloomberg. 

Caution is likely to remain the name of the game this week with sentiment fragile as strict lockdowns in China, concerns around a global slowdown, Fed rate hike fears, and geopolitical risks leave investors on edge. On the data front, there are a couple of key economic data releases from major economies, especially in the United States. Tech titans will be publishing their earnings this week with Microsoft and Google’s parent company Alphabet announcing their results on Tuesday after the market close. With so much going on, this promises to be another eventful and potentially volatile week for financial markets. Yesterday’s wild movements across the FX, commodity, and equity space are testament to this. 

Oil wobbles at around $100 

Oil benchmarks pushed back above $100 today after experiencing a sharp selloff in the previous session, due to fears that lockdowns in China will hit energy demand in the world’s second-largest economy. On top of this, an appreciating dollar is adding extra pressure on the global commodity with Brent shedding roughly 1.5% this month. That said, geopolitical risks may limit downside losses, especially if the United States and its allies consider expanding sanctions on Russian oil imports. It is worth keeping in mind that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised Nigeria’s growth forecast on the back of higher oil prices. However, if oil bulls fail to deliver and the commodity continues to weaken, expectations may fail to match reality.  

On the data front, it may be wise to keep a close eye on the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report published on Wednesday. Another weekly drawdown in crude inventories could lend oil bulls a helping hand.  

Dollar bulls charge on… 

The dollar kicked off the week by appreciating against almost every single G10 currency as concerns over the economic impact of China’s strict lockdown sent investors rushing towards safety.  

Market expectations over the Federal Reserve aggressively raising interest rates also empowered dollar bulls, propelling the dollar index (DXY) to a fresh two-year high. There are several key economic data points over the next few days which are likely to inject the currency with renewed vigor. US consumer confidence, Q1 GDP, and the PCE deflator will all be published, ahead of the key FOMC meeting next week. Should the data further reinforce market expectations over the Fed aggressively raising interest rates, the dollar could be set to appreciate further? 

Commodity spotlight – Gold  

After trading within a range for many weeks, gold finally experienced a solid breakdown below $1920 support with bears securing a daily close beneath the psychological $1900 level. The precious metal struggled to shine against a mighty dollar and aggressive Fed rate hike bets. With the greenback on a tear and potentially receiving further support in the week ahead, this could spell more trouble for gold despite the market caution and risk aversion.  

Looking at the technical picture, sustained weakness below $1920 could signal a decline towards $1880 and $1850. Should $1900 prove to be reliable support, prices could retest $1920. A move back above this level will send prices into the prior range with the first level of resistance at $1960. 

Capital Market

Frenzy In Capital Market As NGX ASI Hits 15-Year High



Impressive Earnings Boost NGX Market Cap Up By N1.8Trillion in July

Rashidat Okunlade Writes

The Nigerian capital market was euphoric at the close of trading on Tuesday as the market hit a 15-year high.

The All-Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) rose by 0.51% to 66,490.34 points from 66,151.38 the previous day, surpassing the highest value of 66,371.20 recorded on the Exchange on March 5, 2008.

This performance was in part, attributed to a surge in banking stocks as investors strategically positioned themselves, taking advantage of the recent record earnings posted by banks. Consequently, market capitalisation increased by 0.51% to closed at N39.69 trillion from N36.21 trillion recorded on Monday.

This meant that investors gained N510 billion in two trading sessions. Among the various sectoral indices, the NGX Banking Index experienced the most significant daily gain, rising by 1.63%. Following closely were the NGX Consumer Goods Index, with a 0.99% increase, and the NGX Industrial Index, which saw a 0.21% uptick. Conversely, the NGX Oil/Gas Index dipped by 0.09%, and the NGX Insurance Index recorded a substantial decline of 1.56%, both attributable to investors reallocating their funds.

An analysis of Tuesday’s market activities revealed a substantial increase in trade turnover compared to the previous session, with transaction values surging by an impressive 79.18%. Consequently, the total volume of stocks traded reached 436.95 million units, valued at N7.02 billion, across 7,933 deals. This marked a significant uptick from the 311.12 million units valued at N3.92 billion traded in 7,193 deals on Monday.

FBN Holdings topped the activity chart with 55.15 million units valued at N911.21 million. Following closely was Japaul Gold with the sale of 33.11 million units worth N29.92 million, while UBA transacted 30.17 million units valued at N41.21 million.

Market breadth closed positive, with 35 stocks appreciating in value while 32 stocks depreciated. Champion Breweries led the pack of gainers with a remarkable 10% increase in stock value. Conversely, Linkage Assurance led the group of 32 declining securities, with a 10% decrease in stock value.

Reacting to the performance of the market, market experts attributed this strong performance to a combination of factors, including investor sentiment influenced by macroeconomic developments such as the formation and swearing-in of the economic cabinet by President Bola Tinubu. Additionally, movements in yields within the fixed income market played a role in shaping market dynamics. They emphasized the importance of strategically positioning investments in fundamentally strong stocks, given the ongoing challenges posed by the weak macroeconomic environment on corporate earnings.

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Capital Market

Financial Services Stocks Dominate NGX Turnover By 58%



Impressive Earnings Boost NGX Market Cap Up By N1.8Trillion in July

Rashidat Okunlade Writes

The Nigerian financial services sector played a significant role in boosting the trade volume and value of equities on the floor of Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) despite global and local equities market challenges.

Nigerian stocks had closed in the negative territory following profit-taking activities on all trading sessions except for Friday trading session (+0.4 per cent). Sell pressures in stocks like Airtel Africa, BUA Cement, and MTN Nigeria dragged the market’s All-Share Index (ASI) down by 0.93 per cent to close at 64,721.09 points while market capitalisation dropped to N35.422 trillion.

However, the Financial Services Industry (measured by volume) led the activity chart with 1.166 billion shares valued at N16.925 billion traded in 13,819 deals; thus contributing 69.04 per cent and 57.55 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

The Conglomerates Industry followed with 191.320 million shares worth N843.336 million in 1,829 deals while the Oil & Gas Industry recorded a turnover of 64.352 million shares worth N810.637 million in 2,159 deals.

FBN Holdings Plc, Transnational Corporation Plc, and Fidelity Bank Plc (measured by volume) were the most traded stocks, accounting for 576.688 million shares worth N6.911 billion in 3,524 deals and contributing 34.14 per cent and 23.50 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

Meanwhile, a total turnover of 1.689 billion shares worth N29.407 billion in 29,477 deals was traded by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 1.741 billion shares valued at N25.087 billion that exchanged hands in the previous week in 30,652 deals.

Furthermore, the market indices finished lower with the exception of NGX Premium, NGX AFR Div. Yield, NGX Consumer Goods, NGX Industrial Goods, NGX Growth, and NGX Sovereign Bond indices appreciated by 0.69 per cent, 0.44 per cent, 2.39 per cent, 0.37 per cent, 1.08 per cent, and 0.25 per cent respectively while the NGX ASeM index closed flat.

Twenty-nine (29) equities appreciated in price during the week lower than forty-one (41) equities in the previous week. Fifty-six (56) equities depreciated in price higher than forty-four (44) in the previous week, while seventy (70) equities remained unchanged, same as seventy (70) recorded in the previous week.

Analysing the market performance, market operators anticipated mixed market performance in the upcoming week. They stated that they expect investors to rebalance their portfolios based on corporate earnings assessment for the first half of 2023. Cordros Research, in an emailed note, said, “In the medium term, we expect investors’ sentiments to be influenced by developments in the macroeconomic landscape and the movement of yields in the fixed-income market. Overall, we reiterate the need for positioning in only fundamentally sound stocks as the weak macro environment remains a significant headwind for corporate earnings”.

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Capital Market

NGX, CIS, ASHON To Work With MOFI On Market Development, Listings



By Moninuola Sulaiman

Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), along with the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers and the Association of Securities Dealing Houses of Nigeria (ASHON), have demonstrated their willingness to collaborate with the Federal Government through the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) in facilitating market development and listings.

This was disclosed during the Closing Gong Ceremony, held in honour of MOFI’s engagement with capital market stakeholders at the NGX trading floor in Lagos.

Temi Popoola, the CEO of NGX, commended MOFI for its role as the custodian of government investments and assets, emphasizing that NGX is eager to collaborate with MOFI to facilitate capital access for listed entities and contribute to the advancement of Nigeria’s capital market. “This partnership is an opportunity for the capital market to actively play a key role in growing the economy under President Bola Tinubu’s agenda. This is an exciting time and you may have seen that our local investors really stepped up their participation in the market recently. We think that with a lot of foreign capital, together with the strengthening and enhancements that have been done, that the market is ready to support many initiatives from the government. We really look forward to working together towards the support in developing our markets”.

On his part, Dr. Armstrong Takang, the CEO of MOFI, emphasized the importance of optimizing the value of government investments and assets, aiming to mobilize, structure, and deploy investment capital in priority sectors of the economy. He expressed the aspiration to grow MOFI’s asset under management (AuM) to at least N100 trillion. “MOFI intends to collaborate with NGX to guide companies in meeting governance, operational, and reporting requirements necessary for listing on the Exchange. This move also contributes to MOFI’s objective of professionalizing Government Owned and Government Linked entities (GOE and GLEs)”, he added.

Expressing the institute’s enthusiasm for the partnership, Oluwole Adeosun, the President of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS), pledged cooperation with MOFI, particularly in areas like capacity development and other market-related initiatives.

Sam Onukwue, the Chairman of ASHON, noted that the partnership’s impact on the Nigerian economy would extend beyond financial gains to encompass broader socio-economic advantages that contribute to sustainable development.

On her part, Tinuade Awe, the CEO of NGX Regulation Limited (NGX RegCo), highlighted the regulatory company’s commitment to collaborating with MOFI on matters of transparency, investor protection, and mitigating systemic risks.

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